For people like me — young, college-educated and politically independent “millenials” — Barack Obama was and stilll remains the college-professor-we-wished-became-president, who actually became president of the United States. His “Yes, We Can” campaign tagline and exhortation for young ones to enter public service resonated strongly, but much to the surprise of those who know my politics, I was rooting for Hilary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. It wasn’t so much a vote against Obama than a vote for Mrs Clinton. We all know who won.
Sure, there were concerns over baggage from her husband’s presidency, but she also had the experience and the verve to negotiate the murky waters of Congressional politics, an important aspect of legislative strategy. I thought Obama could have done with some more political experience as either Hillary’s vice-president or Secretary of State, which would then prepare him for a run in 2016. After all, he’s much younger than Hillary. If there were anybody more equipped to clean up the mess created by a spoilt brat who didn’t know better and allowed two wily old foxes to hijack his presidency, it was perhaps a strong and smart motherly figure who would be able to stand up to the egos that dot politics. Simply put, America needs to be rehabilitated.
Those same friends thought I was cynical for thinking that, but politics is cynical. You have to fight cynical with cynical and then somehow rise above that. Not many political progressives are capable of that because they usually get lynched by the GOP for their politics, which are easily cast as “limp” and “gutless” and therefore “bad for America” by their more hawkish opponents. Both Obama and Hillary want to rise above that, but I wasn’t sure if Obama had what it takes to move beyond cynical hell. I was enthralled by the idea of an Obama presidency, but I wasn’t too hot about the reality of it.
Almost a year after his historical electoral win last November, my concerns seem to be (sadly) validated. His tumbling approval ratings aside — he started way too popular that the only way was down after that — I’ve been quite stunned by how sharply Team Obama’s lacked political discipline and nous after the elections contrasted with their disciplined calibration of his election campaign. Nobody can reasonably expect Obama’s team to possess a Ted Kennedy-esque detailed understanding of Congressional politics because that took years of experience, but I wonder if the gridlock in almost every of his major legislative initiatives could have been avoided with greater foresight.
One of Obama’s main gaffes came from his personal intervention in state politics, with mid term elections coming up in 2010. Knowing that his mandate would be stymied if as historically expected, the President’s party loses ground, Obama has made his preferences known about controversies in Virginia, New York, Massachusetts and Colorado. But the way his preference that current New York Governor David Paterson not run for re-election was made public suggests there wasn’t a lot of thought put into such a strategy. If this was done more privately, President Obama might have had more success with persuading the unpopular incumbent not to run again.
The Congressional mess that is the healthcare reforms is legendary by now. To be fair, many of Obama’s presidential predecessors haven’t had any success with this, so maybe it wasn’t that much of a surprise it was this difficult…but you can’t help but feel his special Congressional address came a little too late in the game. We probably won’t know until much farther into the future why Obama kept, almost foolishly, insisting on a bipartisan agreement when it might have been more prudent to focus on getting a consensus from his Democratic party since they have a rare majority in both Houses. The White House’s recent take-down of Fox News Channel might be a sign that they are wising up to the polarized state of politics, both inside Washington and in the news media, but it’s a wait-and-see at this point.
The list goes on, but it is largely a list of issues that got overshadowed by the healthcare issue. Obama has just begun to switch his attention to his climate change agenda, with the meeting in Copenhagen meeting less than 45 days away and the financial sector reforms, with the administration moving, a few days ago, to reclaim bonuses and cap executive pay in TARP-recipient companies.National Journal has a wonderful piece on whether Obama is “tough enough” (free access only for limited period) that outlines most of my concerns in much detail, so I won’t repeat them here.
But I would expand a little more on foreign policy. Obama’s cerebral style works best with other countries who make it possible for such studied diplomatic engagement. His Nobel Peace Prize “win” which stunned even the President himself, was a visceral example of the political catharsis in the developed world that came with his election win. But with nation-states that are not ostensibly democratic, his cerebral approach may not be the best way forward. For now though, his commitment to engagement with most countries around the world, most notably Iran, North Korea and Burma, are steps in the right direction. But it cannot go on indefinitely, without any clearly stated goals.
His biggest foreign policy decision in this first time would probably be on Afghanistan. If Bush owned Iraq, Afghanistan is Obama’s “war of necessity” (free access only for limited period) — whether or not he acts on General McChrystal’s 40,000-troop increase request remains to be seen, but this could very well be a key determinant of his presidential legacy. There has been a lot of noise debate in the American media lately as Obama studies the situation, but he’s basically stuck between a rock and a hard place — so, as it has been argued elsewhere, even if Obama changes his mind, it is better to be inconsistent than wrong.
There are plenty of America nay-sayers warning about the decline of America, but I highly doubt it — if changes are effected. Although reforms to economic and financial fundamentals are required, people forget America is STILL the dominant economy in the world. The Wall Street meltdown last year points to the centrality of the U.S. economy to the world. China and the rest of Asia may be rebounding quicker than America and other countries in the Western hemisphere, but they don’t have America’s debt levels and many analysts are saying these quick rebounds are immediate effects of their immense government stimulus injections.
I hope for the love of God and whatever else, that Obama goes on to get Afghanistan and his other key decisions spot on. Because unlike professors in college who have tenure to fall back on, President Obama doesn’t quite have that luxury. Professors also however don’t get to create history, but presidents do — and if Obama succeeds in all the big things he’s trying to do, then maybe the reality of his presidency would probably match the idea of it.
This first appeared at my blog at AsianCorrespondent.com.