China – Clement Tan

September 18, 2023October 15, 2023

‘A real big deal’: Biden backs economic corridor as shifting geopolitical alliances fragment the global economy

By Clement Tan | September 18, 2023 | CNBC.com

NEW DELHI — Even for those accustomed to the ebbs and flows of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship, the sight of President Joe Biden extending a handshake to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman at the recent G20 leaders’ summit in New Delhi was quite the turnaround.

After all, Biden had warned last October of “consequences” after the Saudi-led oil cartel OPEC decided to cut crude production and boost prices amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Roughly a year on, Saudi Arabia is not only one of six new invitees to the China-dominated BRICS coalition, but also a signatory to the Biden-led pact for a ship-to-rail economic corridor linking India with Middle Eastern and European Union countries unveiled on the sidelines of the G20 summit — framed as a counter to China’s decade-old Belt and Road Initiative.

Saudi Arabia’s double dipping underscores the range of economic and strategic opportunities that abound for the various economies caught between the dueling U.S. and China as they build their own alliances and spheres of influence. U.S. and other major Western nations have been keen to “de-risk” their economic — and not decouple — from China on grounds of national security.

This is also consequently leading to a fragmentation of the world’s economy as protectionism and nationalism impede global trade, while giving rise to a complex matrix of relationships in a multipolar world that are not always straightforward as nations pursue their self interests.

July 24, 2023October 15, 2023

China vows to ‘adjust and optimize’ property policy in ‘tortuous’ economic recovery

By Clement Tan | July 24, 2023 | CNBC.com

China’s top leaders pledged to “adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner” for its beleaguered property sector, while elevating stable employment to a strategic goal, along with other pledges to boost domestic consumption demand and resolve local debt risks.

Chaired by President Xi Jinping, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it would implement a “counter cyclical” policy and stick largely to a prudent monetary policy and pro-active fiscal policy, according to a readout published late Monday of a quarterly meeting of the Politburo.

The July Politburo meeting typically sets the tone for China’s economic policies for the second half of the year, with market watchers eagerly awaiting firmer guidance on policy support for faltering growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

“Currently, the economy is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a grim and complex external environment,” Xinhua quoted the Politburo as saying.

The post-pandemic economic recovery will proceed in a “wave-like” fashion in a “tortuous” process, it added. The Chinese phrase for risk appeared at least seven times in the readout, underscoring the government’s focus on its containment.

June 4, 2023October 15, 2023

U.S. and China trade barbs at top security summit as Taiwan Strait tensions simmer

By Clement Tan | June 5, 2023 | CNBC.com

SINGAPORE — A handshake and a ministerial lunch were all that the U.S. defense chief and his Chinese counterpart shared on the sidelines of a regional security summit in Singapore.

Ahead of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue which kicked off Friday, Beijing rejected a U.S. request for a bilateral meeting between its defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, and his American counterpart Lloyd Austin.

On Saturday, when Austin took to the stage at the summit where global defense leaders gathered, he called out China for refusing to engage in military dialogue.

“Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity. A cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for substantive engagement,” Austin said in prepared remarks. “The more that we talk, the more we can avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis or conflict.”

China’s Li responded a day later by accusing the U.S. of lacking sincerity and behaving in a manner not befitting of a superpower.

“It is undeniable that a severe conflict or confrontation between China and the U.S. will be an unbearable disaster for the world. China believes that a major country should behave like one,” Li said Sunday in a translation provided by summit organizers. It was his first address to an international audience in his current role as China’s defense chief.

May 30, 2023October 15, 2023

China’s record high youth unemployment is deepening economic scars

By Clement Tan | May 30, 2023 | CNBC.com

As youth unemployment in China rises to a record high, college graduates are caught in a perfect storm — with some forced to take on low-paying jobs or settle for jobs below their skill levels.

Official data shows urban unemployment among the 16- to 24-year-olds in China hit a record 20.4% in April – about four times the broader unemployment rate even as millions more college students are expected to graduate this year.

“This college bubble is finally bursting,” said Yao Lu, a professor of sociology at Columbia University in New York. “The expansion of college education in the late 1990s created this huge influx of college graduates, but there is a misalignment between demand and supply of high skilled workers. The economy hasn’t caught up.”

The scourge of underemployment is another issue that Chinese youths and policymakers have to grapple with.

In a paper Lu co-authored with Xiaogang Li, a professor at Xi’an Jiaotong University, the professors estimated at least another quarter of college graduates in China are underemployed, on top of the rising youth unemployment rate.

March 21, 2012April 5, 2012

Investors eye China services as the next big thing

By Clement Tan

HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters) – As Chinese leaders encourage the country’s 1.3 billion people to open their wallets to boost domestic demand, hotel chains, supermarkets and other service providers offer investors a fresh tilt at the country’s growth story.

Beijing is targeting a 4 percentage point rise in the service industry’s contribution to GDP by 2015, up from 43 percent in 2010. Still well below the U.S. service sector, which makes up about two-thirds of the world’s largest economy.

For investors with longer-term horizons, services that cater to a growing middle class offer an opportunity to cash in on a shift in consumption patterns as Chinese consumers move increasingly up the value chain, say analysts.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand for services due to supply constraints,” said David Cui, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s Shanghai-based chief China equity strategist.

Policy-makers want increased domestic spending to offset a reliance on exports, and have outlined plans to narrow the rural-urban divide and boost wages for 158 million migrant workers. The services sector is vital for future job growth.

Supermarkets, logistics firms and tourism companies focused on domestic travellers offer good opportunities, says Cui, who recently authored a report on China’s services sector, though analysts warn that stock picking is still vital.

Continue reading “Investors eye China services as the next big thing”

June 13, 2011April 5, 2012

Chinese investors shrug off U.S. accounting scandal fallout

By Ai Peng Soo and Clement Tan

SHANGHAI/SHENZHEN, June 13 (Reuters) – For the two dozen Chinese retail investors gathered at the dimly lit public hall of a brokerage firm in Shanghai, the accounting scandals involving U.S.-listed Chinese companies are far from the hot topic of the day’s trading as they swap strategies over tea and cigarettes.

Many of the investors, mostly retirees, have not even heard about the saga over fake numbers among some Chinese firms that has shaken U.S. investors and stunned regulators there.

Even those who have read about the news in scattered media reports were more interested in China’s monetary tightening or tips on the favoured sector of the day than in concerns the companies they have invested in might be hiding similar bombshells in their books.

Continue reading “Chinese investors shrug off U.S. accounting scandal fallout”